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The IPCC, the UN climate convention and the Kyoto Protocol

Climate change · Part 2 / 3 · Fact-checked on 8 November 2026 · how we check

Written with AI from the sources listed at the bottom of this page, then fact-checked by a separate AI.

How the IPCC assesses climate science and its main reports; the UNFCCC, its objective, its principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and its groups of countries; the Kyoto Protocol, its targets, gases and market mechanisms, the Doha Amendment; the COPs from Bali to Warsaw and REDD+.

Part 1 showed that global warming comes from gases released by almost every activity in every country, so no nation can solve it alone; it is a problem for diplomacy. This part follows the first twenty-five years of that diplomacy: the body that tells governments what the science says, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; the treaty that set up the whole system, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, with its principle that rich and poor countries carry different burdens; and the Kyoto Protocol, which turned that principle into binding cuts for the rich alone. The pattern of the ozone story repeats: a framework convention first, a protocol with numbers later. The part ends with the meetings that moved the world from Kyoto towards the Paris Agreement of Part 3.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was set up in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization and the UN Environment Programme, and endorsed by the UN General Assembly that year; its secretariat is in Geneva. It runs no experiments or weather stations and does no research of its own. Its job is assessment: volunteer scientists from member countries review published research and state what is known, with how much confidence, and where doubts remain. Three working groups cover the physical science (I), impacts, adaptation and vulnerability (II) and mitigation, meaning ways to cut emissions (III); a task force writes the methods for national greenhouse gas inventories. Government representatives approve each Summary for Policymakers line by line, so governments cannot later disown the findings.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change works in cycles of six to seven years, each ending in an Assessment Report. The first (1990) made the scientific case behind the climate convention; the second (1995) fed the Kyoto talks; the fifth (2013–2014) shaped the Paris Agreement; the sixth, released in 2021–2023 and closed by a Synthesis Report in March 2023, supplied the findings in Part 1. Special reports answer narrower questions. The best known, on Global Warming of 1.5 °C (2018), showed how much worse impacts would be at 2 °C than at 1.5 °C and put the lower figure at the centre of the talks; others in that cycle covered land and the ocean and frozen regions (both 2019). In 2007 the IPCC shared the Nobel Peace Prize with former US Vice-President Al Gore.

The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change was adopted in New York on 9 May 1992 and opened for signature at the Earth Summit (UN Conference on Environment and Development) in Rio de Janeiro in June 1992. It entered into force on 21 March 1994 and has 198 parties. Article 2 sets its objective: to stabilise greenhouse gas concentrations at a level that prevents dangerous human interference with the climate, within a time frame that lets ecosystems adapt, keeps food production safe and allows economic development to go on. Being a framework convention, it fixes no binding cuts. It lays down principles, requires every party to report emissions and run national programmes, and creates institutions later agreements use. Industrialised countries' aim of returning to 1990 emission levels by 2000 was only an aim.

The heart of the convention is Article 3. Parties are to protect the climate for present and future generations on the basis of equity and in line with their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, with developed countries taking the lead. The reasoning is historical: most of the carbon dioxide already in the air came from countries that industrialised first, their emissions per person are still far higher, and developing countries still need energy to end poverty. Article 3 also takes a precautionary approach: lack of full scientific certainty should not justify delay against serious threats. Article 4 adds that how far developing countries carry out their commitments depends on developed countries delivering the promised finance and technology. India has defended these ideas in every round of talks.

The convention turns the principle into lists. Annex I parties are the countries that were OECD members in 1992 plus the economies in transition, mainly Russia and the former communist states of Central and Eastern Europe. Annex II, a smaller group inside Annex I made up of the OECD members only, must also provide finance and technology to developing countries; transition economies were spared because they could not afford it. Every other party, India and China included, is non-Annex I. The lists have never been redrawn, a later source of friction. The supreme body is the Conference of the Parties (COP) of all parties, meeting every year since the first session in Berlin in 1995; decisions are in practice by consensus, supported by a secretariat in Bonn, Germany.

The first COP judged the convention's aim too weak, and two years of talks produced the Kyoto Protocol, adopted at COP3 in Kyoto, Japan, on 11 December 1997. Under Article 3 and Annex B, industrialised countries accepted legally binding targets that together would cut their emissions at least 5 per cent below 1990 levels during the first commitment period, 2008–2012. Targets varied by country, and the European Union shared a joint one. Annex A listed six gases: carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons and sulphur hexafluoride. Developing countries had no targets. Entry into force needed 55 parties, including Annex I countries accounting for 55 per cent of that group's 1990 carbon dioxide emissions; the test was met only after Russia ratified, and the Protocol took effect on 16 February 2005.

Who stayed outside weakened the Kyoto Protocol. The United States signed but never ratified, objecting that large developing economies had no targets, and Canada withdrew with effect from December 2012. As emissions from China, India and other fast-growing economies rose, the capped countries produced a shrinking share of world emissions. The Doha Amendment, adopted at COP18 in December 2012, set a second commitment period for 2013–2020 and added nitrogen trifluoride to the gases. Fewer countries took targets, and the amendment entered into force only on 31 December 2020, the last day of its own period. India, a non-Annex I party, ratified the Protocol in 2002 and accepted the Doha Amendment in 2017, backing the system while carrying no cap.

Kyoto's most lasting idea was that targets could be met partly through markets, since a tonne of carbon dioxide avoided anywhere does the same for the climate. There were three routes. International emissions trading (Article 17) let an Annex B country that over-achieved sell spare allowances to one that fell short. Joint Implementation (Article 6) let an Annex B country earn credits from a project in another Annex B country. The Clean Development Mechanism (Article 12) alone reached developing countries: a project there, such as a wind farm or landfill-methane capture, earned certified emission reductions, a carbon credit of one tonne each, which developed countries could buy and count. India set up a National CDM Authority, and India and China hosted the most projects. A 2 per cent share of credits funded the Adaptation Fund.

Even before Kyoto's first period began, the Conference of the Parties was looking for something wider. The Bali Action Plan (COP13, 2007) opened talks on long-term action by all countries. Copenhagen (COP15, 2009) was meant to deliver a treaty but produced only the Copenhagen Accord, which the COP merely took note of; it recognised the goal of staying below 2 °C, and developed countries set a goal of mobilising 100 billion US dollars a year by 2020 for developing countries. Cancún (COP16, 2010) made much of this formal and set up the Green Climate Fund, later based in Songdo, South Korea. Durban (COP17, 2011) launched talks on an agreement for all parties by 2015. Warsaw (COP19, 2013) created a mechanism on loss and damage and invited every party to prepare its intended nationally determined contribution.

Forests needed their own track: cutting and degrading them releases a large share of world emissions, while a standing forest is a carbon sink, and Kyoto's mechanisms did little for forests simply left standing. REDD+ fills the gap. It stands for reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, and the plus adds conservation, sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks in developing countries. It works by results-based payment: a country that shows, with measured and verified data, that it has cut forest loss or added forest carbon is paid for those results. The rulebook was completed in the Warsaw Framework for REDD+ (COP19, 2013), and the Paris Agreement later encouraged its use. India released a National REDD+ Strategy in 2018.

Taken together, 1988 to 2013 built the machinery still in use. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change supplies agreed science; the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change supplies the forum, the reporting and the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities; the COP meets every year. The Kyoto Protocol tested one way of sharing the work: binding targets handed down to the countries on a 1992 list, with markets to cut costs. It showed carbon markets could work and gave developing countries a first stake through the Clean Development Mechanism, but it never held all the biggest emitters at once. From Copenhagen on, negotiators moved towards a design in which every country sets and reports its own pledge. Part 3 shows how that became the Paris Agreement and where India's plans fit.

Exam traps

• The IPCC does not carry out its own research or monitoring; it assesses published work. It was set up in 1988 by the WMO and UNEP, four years before the UNFCCC existed, so it is not a body created by the convention.
• The UNFCCC was adopted in New York on 9 May 1992 and only opened for signature at Rio in June 1992; it entered into force on 21 March 1994. The Kyoto Protocol was not a Rio outcome.
• The UNFCCC itself sets no binding emission targets. Binding targets came with the Kyoto Protocol, and only for the industrialised countries listed in its Annex B.
• Annex II is a subset of Annex I: the OECD members only, without the economies in transition. India has never been in either annex.
• Kyoto was adopted in 1997 but entered into force only on 16 February 2005. Its first commitment period was 2008–2012, not 1997–2005.
• Kyoto's basket had six gases: CO2, methane, nitrous oxide, HFCs, PFCs and SF6. It did not include CFCs (handled by the Montreal Protocol) or water vapour; nitrogen trifluoride was added only for the second period by the Doha Amendment.
• The Clean Development Mechanism is the only Kyoto mechanism involving developing countries. Joint Implementation is between two developed (Annex B) countries.
• Copenhagen (2009) produced only an accord that the COP took note of; the Green Climate Fund was established at Cancún (2010), and the loss and damage mechanism at Warsaw (2013).

Recap

• IPCC: set up 1988 by WMO and UNEP; assesses, does not research; three working groups and an inventories task force; AR6 completed March 2023; SR1.5 in 2018; Nobel Peace Prize 2007 with Al Gore.
• UNFCCC: adopted 9 May 1992, opened for signature at the Rio Earth Summit, in force 21 March 1994, 198 parties; Article 2 objective; no binding targets.
• Article 3 principles: equity, common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, developed countries lead, precaution; Article 4 links developing-country action to finance.
• Annex I (OECD 1992 plus transition economies), Annex II (OECD only, pays), non-Annex I (rest, including India); COP yearly since Berlin 1995; secretariat in Bonn.
• Kyoto Protocol: adopted 11 December 1997, in force 16 February 2005; Annex B targets of at least 5 per cent below 1990 in 2008–2012; six gases.
• US never ratified; Canada left in 2012; Doha Amendment (2012) set 2013–2020 and added NF3, in force 31 December 2020; India ratified Kyoto in 2002 and Doha in 2017.
• Markets: emissions trading (Art 17), Joint Implementation (Art 6), Clean Development Mechanism (Art 12, certified emission reductions); 2 per cent share to the Adaptation Fund.
• Bali 2007, Copenhagen 2009 (2 °C, 100 billion dollars a year by 2020), Cancún 2010 (Green Climate Fund), Durban 2011, Warsaw 2013 (loss and damage, INDCs, REDD+ framework).
• REDD+: results-based payments for cutting deforestation and degradation and for conserving and enhancing forest carbon; India's National REDD+ Strategy 2018.

Practice questions

Sources

• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: history and organisation (set up by WMO and UNEP in 1988, endorsed by UN General Assembly resolution 43/53), Principles Governing IPCC Work, list of assessment and special reports (AR1 1990 to AR6 2021–2023) — https://www.ipcc.ch/about/
• United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 1992 (Articles 2, 3, 4, 7 and 21; Annexes I and II) — https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/conveng.pdf
• Kyoto Protocol to the UNFCCC, 1997 (Articles 3, 6, 12, 17 and 25; Annexes A and B) and the Doha Amendment, 2012 — https://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol
• Decisions of the UNFCCC Conference of the Parties: Bali Action Plan (COP13, 2007), Copenhagen Accord (COP15, 2009), Cancún Agreements (COP16, 2010), Durban Platform (COP17, 2011), Warsaw Framework for REDD+ and Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage (COP19, 2013) — https://unfccc.int/decisions
• Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change: National CDM Authority; India's ratification of the Kyoto Protocol (2002) and acceptance of the Doha Amendment (2017); National REDD+ Strategy (2018) — https://moef.gov.in
• Nobel Foundation: the Nobel Peace Prize 2007, awarded jointly to the IPCC and Al Gore — https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/2007/summary/